The transportation sector in Canada accounts for about 29 per cent of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, about 50 per cent of which come from passenger cars and other light-duty vehicles. Electrification of these vehicles has a high profile and will play an important but challenging role in tackling this 16 per cent share of Canadian emissions.
- By 2050, Canada’s transportation energy mix will still be dominated by oil and gas, but their share of the market will drop by about a third from today’s 90 per cent. The magnitude of that drop will depend on the availability and rate of adoption of new liquid fuels, gas, and electricity technologies, along with consumer behaviour changes. An achievable transportation fuel mix may be close to the following by 2050: – oil and gas: ~ 55–65 per cent – electricity: ~ 22–27 per cent – biofuel: ~ 8–12 per cent – hydrogen and e-fuels: ~ 4–6 per cent
- Adopting new fuel options requires sustained government subsidies and incentives to industry and firms to reduce transportation emissions.
- The infrastructure needed to support alternative vehicle and fuel options is incomplete, requiring continued investment if a transition is to be made.
- Behavioural change is needed to shift consumers and firms away from conventional fuels and technologies toward new options, such as electric vehicles and biofuels.
- The federal and provincial governments will need to explore new revenue streams as their liquid fuel tax sources decline.